Wealth Management Resources

Weekly Market Update

June 1, 2026

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Key areas of focus

The labor market takes center stage this week as we kick off June’s economic calendar. We get fresh ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys, the JOLTS report, ADP Employment, and Productivity and Labor Costs, all leading up to Friday's May payrolls report. April's above-forecast 115,000 jobs added suggested the labor market is holding up, and investors will be watching closely to see whether that momentum extended into May.
Oil prices continued to slide as optimism surrounding U.S.-Iranian negotiations sent crude lower for a second consecutive week. By Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading near $88/bbl which was down nearly 10% on the week and roughly 16% for the month. The sustained decline reflects growing investor confidence that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be within reach.
Equity Markets delivered another strong month. The NASDAQ led with an 8.4% gain, followed by the S&P 500 at 5.1% and the Dow at 2.8%. Meanwhile, global markets made headlines of their own with South Korean and Japanese indexes hitting fresh record highs on Friday. South Korean surged nearly 11% for the week amid AI-driven optimism.

Week in review

Markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. On Tuesday, markets reopened on a bullish tone as oil prices fell sharply on hopes of a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, pulling oil prices below $100/bbl after trading roughly 10% higher the previous week. Yields also came down, supported by a Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading that came in better than feared. This was a notable contrast to the University of Michigan's survey, which pointed to meaningful erosion in sentiment alongside a spike in inflation expectations. Wednesday saw the Richmond Fed manufacturing index surge to 13 from 3, signaling improving conditions across the mid-Atlantic region, while oil continued to decline. The bulk of the macro releases came on Thursday. The data was mixed, with core PCE inflation coming in softer-than-expected at +0.2% MoM, but personal income growth falling to zero. Q1 GDP was also revised down to 1.6% from 2.0%, driven by weaker consumer spending and investment. Despite the mixed backdrop, stocks finished the week modestly higher, extending gains for the month of May.

Spotlight

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined modestly in May falling to 93.1 from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April, but still above the 91.9 consensus forecast. The reading suggests a consumer that is cautious but not cracking. The reading is in sharp contrast to the University of Michigan's sentiment reading released last week, which fell to its lowest level ever recorded, driven by surging inflation expectations. The persistent gap between the two surveys is driven by the underlying information that both surveys attempt to capture. The Conference Board leans heavily on labor-market conditions such as job availability, employment levels, and wage income. The U. Michigan survey, by contrast, places greater emphasis on inflation perceptions and purchasing power. With elevated food and energy costs visible in everyday spending, the U. Michigan survey has deteriorated sharply. For now, equity markets have largely aligned with the Conference Board's more constructive message, but the widening divergence between the two measures warrants close attention.